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Serykh I. V., Sonechkin D. M. Chaos and order in atmospheric dynamics part 1. Chaotic weather variations. Izvestiya VUZ. Applied Nonlinear Dynamics, 2017, vol. 25, iss. 4, pp. 4-22. DOI: 10.18500/0869-6632-2017-25-4-4-22

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Chaos and order in atmospheric dynamics part 1. Chaotic weather variations

Serykh I. V., P.P Shershov Institue of Oceanology
Sonechkin Dmitrij Mihajlovich, Hydrometeorological Research Centre of Russian Federation

Ideas of temporary energy distributions of large-scale atmospheric motions are made more accurately in the range of scales from days to one year in order to solve the problem of the chaos and order co-existence in the weather and climate dynamics. Spectra of the Blinova’s mean and shifted zonal extratropical flow indices as well as spectra of the tropical Southern Oscillation and El Nino indices are used for this purpose. Unlike earlier had ideas, it is found for the Blinova indices that transitions between the parts of the spectrum ranges having different average inclinations happen smoothly so there is no «synoptic maximum» of the spectral density near the period about one week and no «index cycle maximum» near the period of about two-three weeks. It confirms a chaoticity of the extratropical weather variations. As for the tropical indices, a break of the spectral density curve is found at the period of 5 days, which has been earlier noticed only in the dynamics of some local characteristics of tropical weather. The second break is found at the period of about 45 days for the modified index of the Southern Oscillation where a peak in the spectrum of the Madden–Julian Oscillation has been earlier found. These breaks indicate the existence of an «order» in the tropical weather dynamics, which also is chaotic, in general. Spectra of the monthly and seasonal weather variations everywhere on the Earth are found composed from a seemingly continuous background and some delta peaks imposed on this background. As a result, the dynamics consists of a mix of partly chaotic and partly ordered weather variations.

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