ISSN 0869-6632 (Print)
ISSN 2542-1905 (Online)


For citation:

Kolesnikov A. V., Malinetskii G. G., Podlazov A. V., Sirenko S. N. Nonlinear elite generation change model. Izvestiya VUZ. Applied Nonlinear Dynamics, 2022, vol. 30, iss. 4, pp. 456-479. DOI: 10.18500/0869-6632-2022-30-4-456-479, EDN: CUJNTJ

This is an open access article distributed under the terms of Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC-BY 4.0).
Full text PDF(Ru):
Full text PDF(En):
(downloads: 139)
Language: 
Russian
Article type: 
Article
UDC: 
519.6
EDN: 

Nonlinear elite generation change model

Autors: 
Kolesnikov Andrei V., Institute of Philosophy of the National Academy of Sciences of Belarus
Malinetskii Georgij Gennadevich, Keldysh Institute of Applied Mathematics (Russian Academy of Sciences)
Podlazov Andrej Viktorovich, Keldysh Institute of Applied Mathematics (Russian Academy of Sciences)
Sirenko Svetlana Nikolaevna, Belarusian State Pedagogical University Named after Maxim Tank
Abstract: 

The purpose of the presented article was to build a concise conceptual mathematical model of the competitive dynamics of alternative types of social activity. The model was developed in the form of a discrete two-dimensional non-linear mapping. The proposed mapping is new and has not been previously studied either in the field of mathematical social dynamics (sociophysics), or in the section of discrete models of nonlinear dynamics. The approach we used corresponds to the ideas of the theory of social time put forward by F. Braudel. Nonlinear two-dimensional mapping, in a paradoxical way, given the general socio-economic ideas about the relationship between generations, as it turned out, has a Hamiltonian structure. The analysis showed that both formally and in terms of qualitative behavior it is close to the standard model describing a rotator under the action of impacts. It was found that, depending not only on the parameters of the problem, but also on the initial conditions, in this case, periodic, quasiperiodic, and chaotic dynamics are simultaneously possible. Within the framework of the model, this means a great variety of intergenerational relationships. Thus, the data in the system will not be "forgotten". The influence on the dynamics of the model of "dissipative additions" describing the degradation of the elite, the desire of society to “eliminate the best” is demonstrated. The dynamics of the system and its dependence on parameters become much simpler; nevertheless, cyclicity and multistability do not disappear in it. In this approximation, history turns out to be “local” — the details and peculiarities of society’s behavior will be "forgotten" after several generations. The study of the constructed model opens up great prospects for the analysis of various types of cyclical processes in mathematical history.

Acknowledgments: 
The study was supported by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research (project 20-511-00003), the State Scientific Research Program “Society and the Humanitarian security of the Belarusian state”, subprogram “Education”, research topic “Develop strategic directions and mechanisms for the modernization of teacher education for sustainable development” (2021–2025), No. SR 20211397
Reference: 
  1. Braudel F. Civilization and Capitalism, 15th-18th Century. Vol. I. The Structure of Everyday Life. New York: Harper and Row; 1992. 624 p.
  2. Kapitsa SP, Kurdyumov SP, Malinetskii GG. Synergetics and Future Forecasts. Moscow: Nauka; 1997. 285 p. (in Russian).
  3. Badalyan LG, Krivorotov VF. History. Crises. Perspectives: A New Look at the Past and the Future. Moscow: URSS; 2019. 288 p. (in Russian).
  4. Turchin P. Historical Dynamics: Why States Rise and Fall. Princeton: Princeton University Press; 2018. 264 p.
  5. Kondratyev ND. Large Conjunct Cycles and Foresight Theory. Selected Works. Moscow: Ekonomika; 2002. 767 p. (in Russian).
  6. Popova EP, Sagdeev RZ. Nonlinear dynamo models and changes in the nature of solar cyclicity. In: Proceedings of the XIV Annual Conference «Plasma Physics in the Solar System». 11–15 February 2019, Moscow, Russia. Moscow: Space Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences; 2019. P. 5 (in Russian).
  7. Ozhiganova EM. The theory of generations by N. Hove and W. Strauss. Possibilities of practical application. Business and Education in the Knowledge Economy. 2015;(1):94–97 (in Russian).
  8. Strauss B, Strauss W, Howe N. The History of America’s Future, 1584 to 2069. New York: Morrow; 1991. 538 p.
  9. Gumilev LN. Ethnogenesis and the Biosphere of Earth. Moscow: AST: Astrel; 2006. 510 p. (in Russian).
  10. Schumpeter J. Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy. New York: Harper & Brothers; 1942. 431 p.
  11. Kolesnikov AV. Engineering of complex social systems in the digital world. In: Proceedings of the 1st International Conference «Futurity Designing. Digital Reality Problems». 8–9 February 2018, Moscow, Russia. Moscow: Keldysh Institute of Applied Mathematics; 2018. P. 81–87 (in Russian). DOI: 10.20948/future-2018-12.
  12. Kolesnikov AV. Sociodynamics of a civilizational cluster of the Union State of Russia and Belarus: The experience of applying the method of digital protoconstructs based on temporal calculus. In: Proceedings of the 3rd International Conference «Futurity Designing. Digital Reality Problems». 6–7 February 2020, Moscow, Russia. Moscow: Keldysh Institute of Applied Mathematics; 2020. P. 191–198 (in Russian). DOI: 10.20948/future-2020-16.
  13. Kolesnikov AV. Nonlinear sociodynamics of competitive sociotypes of molecular and cosmic human. In: Proceedings 4th International Conference «Futurity Designing. Digital Reality Problems». 4–5 February 2021, Moscow, Russia. Moscow: Keldysh Institute of Applied Mathematics; 2021. P. 209–219 (in Russian). DOI: 10.20948/future-2021-19.
  14. Forrester JW. World Dynamics. Cambridge: Wright-Allen Press; 1973. 144 p.
  15. Sirenko SN. Forward thinking pedagogical education as a tool for managing the future. In: Proceedings of the 4th International Conference «Futurity Designing. Digital Reality Problems». 4–5 February 2021, Moscow, Russia. Moscow: Keldysh Institute of Applied Mathematics; 2021. P. 260–269 (in Russian). DOI: 10.20948/future-2021-22.
  16. Zaslavsky GM. The Physics of Chaos in Hamiltonian Systems. 2nd Edition. Singapore: World Scientific; 2007. 328 p. DOI: 10.1142/p507.
  17. Budanov VG. Methodology of Synergetics in Post-Non-Classical Science and in Education. 4th Edition. Moscow: URSS; 2017. 272 p. (in Russian).
  18. Toynbee АJ. A Study of History. Vol. 1: Abridgement of Volumes I–VI. Oxford: Oxford University Press; 1988. 630 p.
  19. Dumas HS. The KAM Story: A Friendly Introduction to the Content, History, and Significance of Classical Kolmogorov–Arnold–Moser Theory. Singapore: World Scientific; 2014. 380 p. DOI: 10.1142/8955.
  20. Chernavskii DS. Synergetics and Information: Dynamic Information Theory. Moscow: URSS; 2021. 304 p. (in Russian).
  21. Katok AB, Hasselblatt B. Introduction to the Modern Theory of Dynamical Systems. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press; 1995. 824 p. DOI: 10.1017/CBO9780511809187.
  22. Schuster HG, Just W. Deterministic Chaos: An Introduction. 4th, Revised and Enlarged Edition. New Jersey: Wiley; 2006. 312 p.
  23. Meiss JD. Symplectic maps, variational principles, and transport. Rev. Mod. Phys. 1992;64(3): 796–848. DOI: 10.1103/RevModPhys.64.795.
  24. Bakhtiyarov OG. Big Processes and Analytics [Electronic resource]. Aurora. 19.07.2021 (in Russian). Available from: https://aurora.network/articles/165-interv-ju/93038-bol-shie-protsessy-i... (cited 2022 Feb 3).
  25. Akhromeeva TS, Kurdyumov SP, Malinetskii GG, Samarskii AA. Nonstationary Structures and Diffusion Chaos. Moscow: Nauka; 1992. 544 p. (in Russian).
  26. Lee KY. The Singapore Story: Memoirs of Lee Kuan Yew. 1st Edition. New Jersey: Prentice Hall; 1998. 680 p.
Received: 
27.12.2021
Accepted: 
13.05.2022
Published: 
01.08.2022