ISSN 0869-6632 (Print)
ISSN 2542-1905 (Online)

For citation:

Makarenko N. G., Karimova L. M., Muhamedzhanova S. A., Knjazeva I. S. Iterated function system and marcovian prediction of time series. Izvestiya VUZ. Applied Nonlinear Dynamics, 2006, vol. 14, iss. 6, pp. 3-20. DOI: 10.18500/0869-6632-2006-14-6-3-20

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Russian
Heading: 
Applied Problems of Nonlinear Oscillation and Wave Theory
Article type: 
Article
UDC: 
530.182
DOI: 
10.18500/0869-6632-2006-14-6-3-20

Iterated function system and marcovian prediction of time series

Autors: 
Makarenko Nikolaj Grigorevich, Federal state budgetary institution of science Main (Pulkovo) astronomical Observatory of Russian Academy of Sciences
Karimova Lailja Mithatovna, The Republican State Enterprise "Institute of Mathematics of the Ministry of Education and Science of the Republic of Kazakhstan"
Muhamedzhanova Svetlana Adikovna, The Republican State Enterprise "Institute of Mathematics of the Ministry of Education and Science of the Republic of Kazakhstan"
Knjazeva Irina Sergeevna, Federal state budgetary institution of science Main (Pulkovo) astronomical Observatory of Russian Academy of Sciences
Abstract: 

This paper demonstrates a tool for prediction time series on a base of iterated function system of the theory of fractals. Iterations result in an attractor or fractal in a space of compacts. The attractor is a support of invariant probabilistic measure or multifractal in a space of Borel measures. An inverse problem consists of finding iterated function system and its probabilities by means of empirical measure. The estimates might be obtained from time series by symbolic dynamics methods. In addition to necessary mathematical material two practical results of predictions of threshold values for financial time series and geomagnetic storms are represented.

Key words: 
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Received: 
19.06.2006
Accepted: 
15.07.2006
Published: 
29.12.2006
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